“Billy Napier is on the hot seat in 2024”, now tell Florida fans something we don’t know already. Napier is 11-14 overall in Gainesville. 2-7 on the road, 6-10 in conference play, and winless versus Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, and Florida State. Also has yet to win a bowl game. This upcoming season is make or break for the Napier administration and Scott Stricklin as athletic director. The 2024 road is anything but a road of leeway. Florida faces eleven, you read that correctly, eleven power-five opponents starting with four games against Miami, Samford, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State before the first bye week virtue of Florida’s opener being on “Week 0”. Coming off their bye week, they play their next three games against UCF, Tennessee, and Kentucky heading into the second and final week off.
Then comes the final five-game stretch. Last year, the final five-game stretch didn’t seem treacherous on paper in the spring or summer, but when the games were played, it’s safe to say that stretch became much tougher when the bridge was crossed. This year, the five-game stretch to end the season on paper before the season will make your head spin. The annual rivalry game versus Georgia is first, then the Gators are on the road to face Texas, back for their final two home games against LSU and Ole Miss, and finally their annual end-of-season rivals, the Seminoles on the road. Yikes.
If Florida plans on beating outside pessimistic expectations where the majority of CFB pundits predict them to miss another bowl game, they have several qualifiers and areas to improve on. Pass protection was an issue, the defense was malignant in all major categories, special teams were a weekly mess, and Florida was very undisciplined with penalties in 2023 as well. This incited a lot of turnover in the defensive staff as Napier hired three new position coaches, a reform to the strength and conditioning program, and a new special teams coach.
A bright side throughout Napier's tenure has been the recruiting and player evaluation. Florida has had six freshmen earn SEC All-Freshmen honors in the last two seasons. In the transfer portal, UF has succeeded with Graham Mertz, Ricky Pearsall, Cam Jackson, Caleb Banks, Montrell Johnson, and O'Cyrus Torrence. In addition, the Gators will have a return of 12 starters from last season which is a big advantage for any program to have leadership from returning players. Now let's get to the games.
Florida needs to win games against Samford, Mississippi St, UCF, and Kentucky. Those four games are your highest likelihood of victory and you have more talent at so many positions than those four. Samford is an FCS school, Miss St has a new staff, UCF was 6-7 last year, and the UK game comes down to competitive drive and pride after being dominated for three years straight. Additionally, UCF, Miss St, and UK have three new QBs while Florida has a returning starter at the position. Games that are a little tougher are games against Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee on the road.
Miami is a big-time matchup for the opener. An in-state opponent whose coach, Mario Cristobal, is also headed into a pivotal season. Breaking in new quarterback Cam Ward who will be playing in arguably his most hostile road environment, returning receivers Jacolby George and Xavier Restrepo, and a solid lineup of defensive linemen led by Rueben Bain. Texas A&M, while still a talented team, is bringing in a new coaching regime. Mike Elko comes in from an impressive showing at Duke but this game is only Week 3 of the new season is still early for players to get comfortable in the different systems. The Aggies won't have key weapon running back Reuben Owens who is out for the season. Tennessee is likely the biggest road game of Napier's career. Unfortunately, he has been underwhelming on the road. In his favor is that Napier beat Tennessee last year so Florida can have the confidence to beat the Vols. Napier probably needs two out of these three.
Now you have the final five-game stretch. Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State. All teams are currently ranked in the top 15. The best thing to hope for is that a couple of these teams aren't as formidable as perceived. Florida State lost a ton of production from last year, Texas' RB room is littered with injuries, LSU will not have dynamic athleticism from the QB spot while still having issues on defense, and Georgia is the cream and the crop of the conference till proven otherwise. Napier needs a serious signature win out of these five, maybe two depending on the first seven games.
With all the surrounding discussion about Billy Napier's status at Florida, a win total in the range of six to eight is probably enough to retain him for 2025. He must maximize his changes to the staff, a talented freshmen class, returning leadership at all three stages of the team, and home-field advantage in five of UF's first seven games of the season. It's now or never Billy.
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