Will the Celtics Walk into the Finals?
The Celtics have looked unbeatable for most of this season, and boast the best record in the league at 64-18. Jayson Tatum has taken another step forward, and is a legit MVP candidate this season. The additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, and the expansion of Derrick White's role, have all helped them become the second best defense in the league, by defensive rating. They are easily the best team in the league, but are they beatable, or will they win the Celtics 18th title? When you look at the East, it’s hard to see a team putting up a real challenge. In the first round they face the Heat, who are without their best player Jimmy Butler, and even though the Heat knocked the Celtics out of the playoffs in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat are a worse team this year. It’s hard to envision them doing much without Playoff Jimmy. In the second round, they’ll be facing either the Cavs or the Magic. The Magic are the fourth youngest team in the league, and the Cavs duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland hasn’t been as great a pairing as many expected. Boston is up 2-1 in the season series against both, and while Paolo Banchero and Darius Garland have really started to breakout as stars, neither are currently close to Tatum’s level. They shouldn’t have a problem in the first two rounds, which means it's up to their matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals matchup to stop them from getting to the Finals. Whichever team they face is bound to be dealing with injury problems. Giannis Antetokounmpo is dealing with a calf strain, but could come back in the second round, Julius Randle is out for the playoffs, and Joel Embiid hasn’t been close to 100% since coming back from meniscus surgery. The Pacers are the healthiest team, but it’s hard to believe a core of Haliburton and Siakam can really hang with the star studded Celtics. The only real problem they could have is if Giannis or Embiid regain their MVP level form during the first two rounds, and then can be at full strength against Boston. Giannis and Embiid have both shown the ability to play at a higher level than Tatum when healthy. Their costars, Damian Lillard and Tyrese Maxey, could both be better than Jaylen Brown, when their shots are falling. It’s a big if, but if the two former MVP's get healthy, and don’t lose in the first round, the Bucks or 76ers could give the Celtics a tough matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Are the Timberwolves and Thunder legit?
The Thunder (57-25) and Timberwolves (56-26) have been top five teams all year. Should we take them serious as legit championship contenders this year, though? Can they beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets? The Timberwolves should have the size to defend Jokic with Rudy Gobert and the returning Karl Anthony Towns, but they lack playoff experience. Last year, in year one of the Gobert experiment, they were the 8th seed, and lost to the Nuggets in the first round in five games, but times have changed. Anthony Edwards has cemented himself as a top five player in the league. They face the star studded Suns team in the first round, so how Ant-Man performs against Kevin Durant will be a great test for him. He can definitely carry a team, but the question remains how far? For the Thunder, they have the second youngest team in the league, only older than the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs. Their starters include two 21 year old's, a 23 year old, and two 25 year old's. They have two of the youngest stars in the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. They earned the first seed so their road to the Western Conference Finals will include a Zion-less Pelicans team, followed by facing the winner of the Clippers and Mavericks series. The semis will be their first true test, as the Mavs and Clippers are two of the more experienced teams in the league, led by superstars Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard. Is this team too young, or are we seeing a team that could be championship contender for the next decade? Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the future is definitely bright, but this playoffs will show how good the present can be.
Injured Stars
The first round is scattered with injury questions that could decide series. Often it is the healthiest teams that win in the playoffs, and with so many star players currently on injury reports it's likely that will be the case this year. The list of players, either currently injured or coming back from injury, include Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Zion Williamson, and Karl-Anthony Towns. How healthy these players are, and if they come back at all, in some cases, could be the determining factor in many of these first round matchups.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf strain) is reportedly out 2-4 weeks after suffering a left calf strain on April 9th. If their series with the Pacers goes to 7 games, then it’s definitely possible he will return, but they struggled with Giannis, so without him, this could be over quickly. On top of Giannis’ injury, Damian Lillard has missed practice recently while dealing with groin and abductor injuries.
Joel Embiid (meniscus) missed 30 games after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He returned on April 2nd, and has since led the 76ers to 9 straight wins. In his return, Embiid hasn't looked like he is at full strength, often messing with the brace on his knee, or standing bent over with his hands on his knees. He had to miss the last game of the season against the Nets due to, what the 76ers are calling, precautionary reasons. A fully healthy Embiid with this 76ers squad has the potential to beat anyone. A 70% Embiid might not be able to lead this team past the Knicks in the first round.
Julius Randle (shoulder) has been out since January, and after an April 10th shoulder surgery is officially out for the rest of the season. He is the Knicks second best player and gives them a reliable scoring option outside of star PG Jalen Brunson. The Knicks have been good without him, as OG Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson have all produced in Randle’s absence, but without Randle it’s hard to envision them posing a real threat to the East’s top teams.
Jimmy Butler (MCL) suffered a sprained MCL in Wednesday's play-in game against the 76ers. He somehow stayed in the game against the 76ers, playing 3 quarters on a sprained MCL. He will reportedly miss 'several weeks,' making his playoff return unlikely, unless they magically make it past the Celtics. With him being out, the Celtics should bring their brooms to Miami.
Zion Williamson (hamstring) tweaked his hamstring in the final few minutes of his best game as a pro against the Lakers in the play-in game. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks, but the Pelicans will most likely already be eliminated by then, especially when considering they’re facing the first seed, Oklahoma City Thunder.
Kawhi Leonard (knee) is questionable with his knee injury for game one against the Mavericks. This team is talented when healthy, but I doubt they can beat Luka Doncic and the Mavericks without a fully healthy Kawhi. His defense against Luka Doncic is a major reason they have a chance in this series, so if he can't play, this series could be over quickly.
Karl Anthony Towns (meniscus) returned from his meniscus injury last week and played in two games for the Timberwolves as they were fighting for the 1 seed. They failed to get the 1 seed, dropping down to 3, but his return gives optimism for their playoff run. His shooting opens up their offense as he is one of the best shooting big men in the league. If he can get to 100%, he should help Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert compete with the Nuggets and Thunder to come out of the West.
Photos by Getty Images, Matt Stone, and Media News
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