Record Shattering Offense
The 2024 NFL Draft will be dominated by offense. The record for most offensive players picked in the first round is 19, which happened three times, most recently in 2009. It would be a shock if that record stood. As it currently stands, it seems likely that at least 4 QBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE, and 8 OL are locks for the first round. That’s already 19 picks, and that doesn’t include QBs Michael Penix or Bo Nix sneaking into the first round for the fifth year option, or the 4 other WR’s that have a chance to be first rounders, or the developmental tackles, like Tyler Guyton, Jordan Morgan. There's a real chance that as many as 25 of the 32 picks in the first round are offensive players, shattering the record of 19. The beginning of the first round is also going to be offense heavy. The top 7 picks are very likely to be all be offensive players, which would be the second time that the top 7 has been all offense in the last 57 years, last happening in 2021. The top offensive players are incredibly talented, which pushes down an underwhelming defensive class, and that will lead to records being broken.
Which team is going to trade up for JJ McCarthy?
It is almost certain that the top three picks on Thursday will be QBs Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, in some order. The question during and after the collegiate season was who would be the fourth QB taken? JJ McCarthy has seemingly distanced himself as the clear QB4 in the last month, as the rest of the QBs are an underwhelming group. Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Rattler are the only others that could be first rounders, but injuries or major inconsistencies make them more likely to be day 2 picks. The teams that need a QB but don’t pick in the top 3, will need to try to move up over the Giants, at 6, if they want to find a QB with first round talent. Making a trade up even more likely are the two teams that pick before the Giants, the Cardinals and Chargers, are also both reportedly very interested in moving down. The teams most likely to trade up for a QB include the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, and possibly even the Giants. The projected starting QBs for these teams are Sam Darnold, Jarrett Stidham, Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones. None of these teams should be comfortable with their current starters, so there will most likely be a bidding war for JJ. The Vikings have already loaded up in preparation for this bidding war, trading with the Texans for the 23rd overall pick, seemingly in a preemptive move to trade up again. Which team will pull the trigger and select the collegiate champion?
Big Name Players on the Move?
Will Brandon Aiyuk still be a 49er on April 27th? If he makes it to Saturday without being traded, it's likely the 49ers believe they can work out an extension, keeping him in San Francisco this season, but before then, all bets are on the table. If the top four receivers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brian Thomas Jr. all go before the Jaguars pick at 17, the Jags could prefer a trade for Aiyuk, rather than reaching for the fifth best WR. This will be the discussion many teams are having all throughout the draft, which inevitably will lead to players being traded. Other players that could be traded on draft night include Tee Higgins, Matthew Judon, Deebo Samuel, Marshon Lattimore, Jonathan Allen, and Trey Lance. If a team still has a major need, but misses out on a prospect at those positions, watch out for them to pivot to trading for a proven commodity veteran player.
How Do Teams View Their Rosters?
One of the things you can learn from teams during the draft is how they view their roster and their biggest needs. Teams like the Rams, Seahawks, Jets, and Falcons, all have older QBs who have had injury concerns. If any of these teams take a QB in the first two days of the draft, it may be an indication that they don’t believe in their starter to stay healthy, or think they are closer to the end of their physical prime than you would believe. The Packers drafting Jordan Love in the first round, was a sign they thought Aaron Rodgers would fall off soon enough, and they were eventually willing to move on from him. This could be true for every position on a roster too. If a team like the 49ers decides not to draft a tackle early to replace Colton McKivitz, then it’s probable they are much higher on that player than the general public is. The aggressiveness of teams in the first few rounds will show how much they believe in the players on their current roster.
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