With the legal tampering period starting March 11 and free agency approaching, these are my predictions for some of the top free agents to hit the market this offseason.
Houston Texans sign DT Chris Jones
Chris Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent after getting 26 sacks in the last two seasons. In 2023, he shared the league's top spot for pass rush win rate among defensive tackles at 20%, despite facing double-teams more frequently than any other DT.
Jones is eager for a significant contract, and Houston appears capable of meeting his demands. With Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud, and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Anderson Jr., still on affordable contracts, the Texans have the financial flexibility to sign Jones and keep DE Jonathan Greenard. This move could establish one of the most formidable defensive fronts in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers resign QB Baker Mayfield
The Buccaneers found success with Baker Mayfield last season, signing the experienced quarterback to a one-year, $4 million deal. His performance saw significant highs in completion rate (64.3%), passing yards (4,044), and passing touchdowns (28).
Given their late position in the first round of the draft, acquiring a franchise quarterback seems unlikely for Tampa Bay. Thus, Mayfield appears to be their most viable option. One potential approach could be a three-year, $75 million contract structured similarly to Geno Smith's deal with the Seahawks, offering flexibility for the Buccaneers to opt out after one season if needed. Alternatively, if negotiations stall, Tampa Bay could resort to using the franchise tag on Mayfield.
Baltimore Ravens Sign RB Josh Jacobs
The Ravens showcased one of the NFL's most effective rushing offenses in 2023; however, their backfield composition could face significant changes next season. Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook are all set to enter free agency in March, while promising rookie Keaton Mitchell will be sidelined recovering from a torn ACL.
Given Lamar Jackson's dynamic running threat, Baltimore may not feel pressured to invest heavily in running back talent. Nonetheless, they might explore the abundant options in the free agent market to secure a long-term solution, such as Josh Jacobs. Jacobs, who was franchised in 2023 but is likely to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, garnered first-team All-Pro recognition after leading the league in yards from scrimmage in 2022. Despite a challenging 2023 season, Baltimore's offensive line surpasses the one Jacobs played behind with the Las Vegas Raiders. Moreover, his adeptness in catching passes could complement the Ravens' offense if Lamar reduces his scrambling tendencies as he matures.
Denver Broncos Sign CB Jeff Okudah
Denver finds themselves roughly $25 million above the salary cap, indicating that 2024 could be a rebuilding season for Sean Payton and the Broncos' organization. It's highly probable that the team will part ways with Russell Wilson and might opt to select a quarterback in the first round of the draft, with limited additions expected in free agency.
Should Denver decide to allocate funds, it might prioritize the cornerback position, particularly with pending free agent Fabian Moreau, who started 11 games opposite Patrick Surtain II last season. Jeff Okudah, the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, has shown glimpses of potential but has been hindered by injuries and inconsistent performances throughout his career. Taking a chance on Okudah could be a strategic move for the Broncos, banking on the possibility that he could excel alongside one of the NFL's premier cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain.
Indianapolis Colts Franchise Tag WR Michael Pittman Jr.
There is strong indication that Indianapolis will utilize the franchise tag on Pittman Jr. this offseason. He has emerged as their most reliable offensive threat since being drafted from USC in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Pittman Jr. achieved career-best numbers last season, recording 109 receptions and 1,152 yards. Keeping him as a primary target for young quarterback Anthony Richardson seems like a sensible move for the Colts.
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