1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs won a Super Bowl with one of the worst receiving corps of recent memory. I’m not sure the roster matters anymore while Patrick Mahomes II is playing like the best player of all time. They did improve at WR by signing Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown, and drafting the fastest WR in combine history, Xavier Worthy. The major questions in KC is Rashee Rice’s growing off-the-field problems, and replacing L’Jarius Sneed, but as long as they still have Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Andy Reid, none of this seems to matter, and we’ll see them in the AFC championship game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has the best roster in football, and came just a few plays away from winning it all. After they drafted WR Ricky Pearsall in the first round there was speculation about possible Aiyuk or Deebo trades, but nothing materialized and now the 49ers again have the deadliest skill position group in the league. The Achilles injury to Dre Greenlaw hurts, but it could be offset by signing LB De’Vondre Campbell, the improved DL, and a new DC. 49ers fans should be optimistic about the defense and how much Brock Purdy can improve in his first full NFL Offseason. It shouldn't surprise anyone if we see a rematch in the Super Bowl.
3. Baltimore Ravens
It’s hard to overstate how talented Lamar Jackson is. The 2x MVP evolved his game last year under new OC Todd Monken, throwing more and better than ever. In year two of the offense there should be even more understanding of the offense and better results. The addition of Derrick Henry should also allow them to get back to the run game more, especially in the playoffs, although losing two starters on the OL will hurt. The defense is what concerns me, especially after losing their DC Mike Macdonald and losing key defensive starters Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney. They have the best roster in the AFC but without having proven they can succeed in the playoffs I can't rank them higher.
4. Houston Texans
I am fully bought in on the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud. C.J. looked like a top five QB at the end of last season, and I have no reason to believe he can’t continue this trajectory. The rest of the roster has also improved massively. Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Denico Autry, and Azeez Al-Shaair bring immediate help to a team that already won a playoff game against a great defense in Cleveland. They are true Super Bowl contenders.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
If Joe Burrow is finally healthy this season, the Bengals will be serious contenders. When healthy, he is easily a top ten QB. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the best WR duo in the league, and although this is probably the last year of them together, they should be among the league's best passing games. They also brought in some protection for Burrow, signing OT Trent Brown and drafting Amarius Mims in the first round. Offensively their main hole is at RB after trading Joe Mixon, and replacing him with Zack Moss. Their defense also lacks star power, outside of maybe Trey Hendrickson, which holds them back from the top three AFC teams.
6. Detroit Lions
Detroit was a top five offense last year, and are bringing back almost all of their offensive starters and surprisingly OC Ben Johnson. They also tried hard to fix their biggest hole at CB by trading for Carlton Davis and drafting both Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw. Bringing in Marcus Davenport to rush the passer opposite of star Aidan Hutchinson is good, but Davenport hasn't been a reliable player due to injuries and inconsistent performance, so I'm not sure it'll be enough to fix their pass rush. They just signed Jared Goff to a 4 year $212M extension, so the pressure is on him to produce behind one of the best OL’s in the league, and a skill position group filled with stars. They could easily be back in the NFC Championship game.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is difficult to rank because I believe Jason Kelce’s retirement is going to seriously deplete the Eagles biggest strength at OL, but at the same time, I love most of their offseason moves. Saquon Barkley brings pass catching ability and elusiveness they haven't had since LeSean McCoy. They also seemingly fixed their CB problem by bringing in Avonte Maddox, CJ Garnder-Johnson and key rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. This team is definitely better than they were at the end of the season, but Kelce’s retirement might hold them back from the Lions and 49ers.
8. Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love was a star at the end of last season. Even if his over aggressiveness led to some losses, including the playoff loss to the 49ers, his arm talent is up there with the league’s best. They were also the youngest team in the NFL last year, so the continuity and experience will bode well for them. The reason I’m optimistic enough to put them in the top ten is because they finally changed DCs, bringing in Jeff Hafley to replace Joe Barry. They also finally have safeties, bringing in Xavier McKinney, and rookie Javon Bullard. This defense should be closer to league average, and even with the youth last season, they were already a top ten unit offensively, ranking 6th in DVOA. I expect them to challenge the Lions for the NFC North.
9. Cleveland Browns
The Browns are tough to rank because they only really have one hole on the roster, but it is at the most important position in sports. Deshaun Watson has been a terrible player ever since coming back from suspension for the 20+ sexual assault accusations. Joe Flacco actually performed better than him after Watson’s shoulder injury, and the 38 year-old Flacco led them to the playoffs. They signed Jameis Winston and Tyler ‘Snoop” Huntley to be backup QBs, so it’s starting to seem like the Browns don’t have much faith in him either. Outside of their QB, this is a top 3 roster in football.
10. Miami Dolphins
Miami has the most electric offense in football and the fastest team in the league, but it is hard to get the image of them losing in the cold Kansas City out of my mind. This team isn’t built for the playoffs, probably due to the lack of arm strength or playmaking ability of Tua Tagovailoa. Their defense also lost Christian Wilkins, and it’s hard to rely on the health of Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and free agent acquisition Shaquil Barrett. Their pass rush is going to be in a tough spot, and even if Tua and HC Mike McDaniel can carry this team in the regular season, it’s hard to have much hope for them in the playoffs.
11. New York Jets
New York is in win now mode trying to maximize 40 year old Aaron Rodgers’ potential last season. With that in mind, the Jets did a great job, signing old and injury prone players in Tyron Smith and Mike Williams, and trading for Hasson Reddick and Morgan Moses. If everything breaks right for them and injury luck is on their side, this is a potential Super Bowl contender. If their luck is as bad as it was last season, they could once again be a top 10 defense carrying the worst offense in the league. Quite a range of outcomes for the Jets, but at least they have a chance to win it all.
12. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is the second best QB in the league. Counting him out is never a wise move, so even with all the changes the Bills are going through, losing key veterans Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Gabe Davis, I still see them as a playoff team. The roster outside of Allen is also better than it seems at first glance. Their defense was one of the most injured units in the league, and they’re getting some key starters back, like Matt Milano. WR is still a question, but the room of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir has a chance of being good enough. Allen is going to have to do some heavy lifting, but I'm close to certain he's capable.
13. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys make it hard to believe in them, despite fielding one of the most talented rosters in the league. Their entire offseason has been a confusing mess. I don’t understand how Mike McCarthy is back as HC, how they haven’t signed either Dak Prescott or CeeDee Lamb to extensions, and why bringing back Ezekiel Elliott was their biggest free agency addition. A good draft, picking Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe isn’t enough to save them from this season ending with anything other than another dramatic failure.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is bringing the crew back together when many believed at least one of their core players would be on the move. They might have had to overpay to keep Baker Mayfield, but he was playing the best football of his career last season, so it definitely makes sense to keep him around. Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David and Baker were also huge in Tampa’s playoff win, and with another year of continuity they could be better this year.
15. Chicago Bears
The Bears trade with Carolina is the gift that just keeps giving, as it led to them being one of the most improved teams in the league. #1 overall pick Caleb Williams has all the talent in the world, and could be a top ten QB as early as his rookie year. They’ve brought in Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, D’Andre Swift, and fellow rookie WR Rome Odunze to support Williams. This offense should be lights out even while going through some of the inevitable rookie mistakes. On defense, they still don’t have a reliable pass rusher outside of Montez Sweat, but were still playing great last year after acquiring Sweat. A great offense and good defense, makes a playoff trip possible, maybe even likely for Chicago.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle made one of the most surprising moves of the offseason, firing long time HC Pete Carrol and replacing him with Mike Macdonald. I really like Macdonald as a coach as he had the Ravens playing like the best defense in the league, allowing many of his players to have career years last season, including Jadeveon Clowney and Patrick Queen. The Seahawks first selection in the Macdonald era being DT Byron Murphy was one of my favorite first round selections, as this allows for some of the elaborate schemes Baltimore used last season, and gives some juice to the interior pass rush. Their offensive line is still not great, but Geno and the skill position group should keep this team afloat as they try to compete for the playoffs.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers needed to improve on Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, and decided to bring in both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, two guys at opposite stages of their careers each with major question marks. They are definitely better than last year’s group, but it was odd to bring in both, showing they might have very much belief in either. Luckily they have one of the best defenses in the league, and have finally improved their offensive line enough to consider it a potential strength. WR is their only major problem after trading Diontae Johnson, as none of the current players outside of George Pickens should be relied on to play as much as they’re going to be asked to. Tomlin’s 17 years without having a losing record doesn’t seem to be at risk, but I doubt they’ll be able to really compete, unless Fields has a major career resurgence.
18. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has been the forgotten QB in the 2023 draft class, partially because of the superstardom of CJ Stroud, and partially due to Richardson’s shoulder injury that sidelined him for the second half of the season. Richardson was playing amazing football before his injuries, and while injuries are still a major question, this is a QB that has the tools to be the best player in the league. The Colts also have helped put him in a solid position by keeping Michael Pittman and drafting AD Mitchell. They could definitely sneak into the playoffs.
19. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons should walk away with the NFC South, but their defense is probably not good enough to really compete with the top NFC teams. The offense should look a lot better after bringing in Kirk Cousins and a real HC who will hopefully get Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson the ball. It’s hard to rank Atlanta without thinking about how much higher they could be if they got a player that could help them this season with the 8th overall pick, but this is still a talented team, with improvements at the two most important spots, HC and QB.
20. Los Angeles Rams
Life without Aaron Donald is going to be tough. Their defense has been Aaron Donald and seemingly random players outside of them for the last couple years, consistently being one of the lowest defensive spending teams in the NFL. I don’t have much faith in this defense, especially after their DC Raheem Morris left for Atlanta. Luckily the offense is in a great position. Stafford has moments where he plays out of his mind, and looks like a top 5 QB in the league. Throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua behind an improved OL makes it likely this is a top tier offense.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are in such a weird spot because I have absolutely no idea what they are doing. Why would they allow Calvin Ridley to walk in free agency after he and Trevor Lawrence had a good connection last season? Trevor was not close to being as good as most people expected last year, really ever since he was drafted, even if there are great flashes. They are still a solid team led by a good QB, but it’s hard to have much faith in them especially as the roster continues to get worse. Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk as their starting WRs behind a shaky OL make it hard to have faith in them. This could very well be Trent Baalke and Doug Pederson’s last year in Jacksonville.
22. New England Patriots
I might be higher on the Patriots than many, but this was a top ten defensive unit last season, and that was with only 4 games of Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez has the talent to be one of the best corners in the league, so this defense should be able to stay in the top ten. Offensively they were unwatchable all of last year, but Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye raise both the floor and ceiling of this group. If Maye plays he’ll be the best playmaker New England has had in years. WR also improved with the Ja’Lynn Polk addition, even though I wish they did more. They should finally be a watchable offense with an outstanding defense. Even if Maye doesn't play they should be an improved group.
23. Minnesota Vikings
JJ McCarthy is set up in a great position to succeed, but after not being asked to do much at Michigan, I think he’ll have some real struggles if he’s the starter on day one. If not, I think Sam Darnold will also struggle, mostly because he hasn't shown the ability to take care of the ball in the NFL. Defensively, they were a chaotic group last season, blitzing more than any team, but I have major concerns at the long term validity of blitzing that often. They also lost key defensive starters Danielle Hunter, Jordan Hicks, and Marcus Davenport making it even more difficult to blitz that often. Losing Danielle Hunter and Kirk Cousins, even if they did replace them with rookies Dallas Turner and JJ McCarthy, leaves the Vikings as the worst team in the NFC North this year, but a solid foundation for the future.
24. Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Gannon had the Cardinals competing in every game last season, even beating Dallas early in the year even before they fell off. They were a solid team even though they had probably the 2nd worst roster in the NFL, behind the Panthers. Now that the rookie class headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr, Max Melton, and Darius Robinson are in Arizona, and Kyler Murray is another year removed from his torn ACL and in year 2 of Gannon's system, the Cardinals should be able to come close to making the playoffs.
25. New Orleans Saints
The Saints were once again in cap hell, which made improving the roster a tough task. They did the best they could, bringing in Chase Young and drafting Taliese Fuaga in the first round, but the Saints are the same as they’ve been for the last five years. A team struggling to be .500, overpaying for veterans without ever having a chance to compete for a Super Bowl. Derek Carr perfectly encapsulates this, as an overpaid and average starting QB. Star RT Ryan Ramczyk’s rumored retirement is what puts them lower than league average, because without him a possible strong OL is turned into a massive weakness.
26. Los Angeles Chargers
Jim Harbaugh coaching Justin Herbert is enough to garner massive optimism for the Chargers, but the losses of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler to a roster that already wasn't very good make a playoff run unlikely. Drafting Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey is a great start to the rebuild, but huge questions about the defense and the skill position group still exist. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston should not be the top WR’s for any team, so hopefully Ladd can stay healthy enough to contribute right away. This roster is not talented enough for Justin Herbert to carry them to competing in the AFC, even if Herbert is one of the top 5-10 QBs in the league.
27. Tennessee Titans
The Titans seem to be maximizing the savings from Will Levis’ rookie contract, bringing in L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Lloyd Cushenberry, Chidobe Awuzie and Tony Pollard. Levis showed very promising flashes with his insane arm strength, but I’m not sure I have as much faith in Levis as they do. They did use resources to improve the OL, signing Cushenberry and then drafting JC Latham in the first round, but I don’t think they did enough to keep this OL from being a weakness. Their defensive additions make defensive improvement likely, but I doubt it’s enough to make them a top 10 unit. Tennessee is definitely better than last year on paper, but I still doubt they can compete in the AFC South.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
How much can star players Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins, and Kolton Miller carry bad QB play? Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connel should not be starting NFL QBs, but they’ll have to be this year. I did like TE Brock Bowers and C Jackson Powers-Johnson in the draft, but they also don’t play premium positions. It's hard to buy them punting on QB next year, but that's what they'll have to do, so although this year will be rough, maybe they can sign Dak Prescott next year.
29. New York Giants
The Giants defense is actually set up nicely after acquiring Brian Burns, but the loss of Xavier McKinney makes me hesitant to put them among the league’s best defense. The offense is another story, though, as it’s one of the worst in the NFL. Malik Nabers finally gives them a real WR, but they lost Saquon Barkley, and their OL is still one of the worst in the league. Daniel Jones will have to carry them to give them any chance at the playoffs, but after a massively disappointing 2023 season before his torn ACL I doubt he’ll be able to.
30. Washington Commanders
Washington finally has a QB after drafting Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick. He’ll probably need to utilize his blazing speed behind a bad OL. Jayden Daniels also took way too many big hits at LSU, so this could be a recipe for disaster, and the RG3 comparison might end up being accurate. Their HC hire of Dan Quinn was also questionable as it seemed to be a panicked move after Lions OC Ben Johnson let them know he wasn’t interested in leaving Detroit. There’s definitely talent on this roster, specifically at WR with Terry McLaurin and scattered across the defense. I just have major concerns at both HC and OL, which is exactly what you don’t want for a rookie QB.
31. Denver Broncos
This ranking has a lot to do with my disbelief in Bo Nix, as I really don’t think he’ll ever be a top 10 QB, and in his rookie season, I doubt he’ll be a top 20 QB, even if he does have a ton of experience. Outside Patrick Surtain and Courtland Sutton this roster doesn’t have any difference makers. A defense that let up 70 points in a game last season somehow got worse, notably releasing Justin Simmons. I think the Broncos are destined for a top 10 pick, and could be picking in the top 3.
32. Carolina Panthers
I feel bad for Panthers fans, but they were easily the worst team in the league last year, didn’t have a first round pick, and traded probably their second best player in Brian Burns. Hopefully a new HC, Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette are enough to make Bryce Young look like a competent QB this year, but It’s very hard to view them as anything but the worst team in the league. At least they have a first round pick this year, and it's definitely possible Bryce Young looks better this season, after the disastrous 2023 Carolina Panthers tried to ruin him.
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