Houston Texans: 12-5
Houston is easily the best team in the division, and after improving during the offseason they should have no trouble repeating as division champions. They not only have a top five QB in CJ Stroud who should only continue to improve heading into his Sophomore season, they also brought in star EDGE rusher Danielle Hunter, veteran WR Stefon Diggs, and other key contributors like TE Dalton Shultz, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, and DL Denico Autry this offseason. Starting with their defense, their free agent additions should raise the floor of the unit while also helping young players like CB Derek Stingley and EDGE Will Anderson Jr reach their sky-high potential. If both take the expected leap and become top ten players at their positions this season, they could be one of the better defenses in the league behind HC DeMeco Ryans aggressive leadership. Offensively they're even better. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are one of the best young receiver duos in the league, and now that they’ve traded for Stefon Diggs, Stroud's skill position players are top tier. Their line should also improve simply by regressing to the mean in regard to injury luck, after having one of the most injured offensive lines in the league last season. There’s a chance this is a top three offense, and if the division weren’t so competitive I’d pick them to have the best record in the AFC. With an incredibly young and talented group led by a superstar head coach and QB, don’t be surprised when the Texans are in the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
Anthony Richardson is just so good. If he can stay healthy, they’re easily the second-best team in this division, and could compete with Houston. After playing in just four games last season health is still a major question mark, but those four games showed tantalizing flashes that make it easy to believe he can be a special player. What makes me confident they’re the second-best team in the division even with the injury question is that after Richardson went out head coach Shane Steichen showed he’s special too. The Colts were 9-8 last season including being 7-6 with Gardner Minshew starting. It's hard to expect Richardson to stay healthy for 17 games considering how often he runs, but it’s obvious the coach can set up the offense well enough for 39-year-old Joe Flacco during games Richardson misses, to at least slightly improve on their 9-8 record last season. I haven’t even mentioned that the rest of the roster has also improved, drafting two potential difference makers in WR Adonai Mitchell, and EDGE rusher Laiatu Latu, who was the most technically refined pass rusher in the class and could help unlock the rest of the pass rush. With good players littered throughout this roster from Michael Pittman Jr, Jonathan Taylor, and Quentin Nelson on offense to DeForest Buckner, and Kenny Moore on defense this roster is still very good. Getting both the QB and head coach right along with having a talented roster makes me believe the Colts are closer to competing with the Texans for the division than they are to the rest of the division.
Tennessee Titans: 8-9
What are the Titans? They are a team going all in on a middling roster in order to find the answer on their electric but unpredictable 2nd year QB Will Levis. Levis can look like either Josh Allen or Jameis Winston depending on the play. With his up and down style, it’s incredibly difficult to tell whether he can be a franchise QB, but the Titans have worked as hard as possible to put him in the best possible situation in order to find out the answer. They signed Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard to pair with last year’s DeAndre Hopkins addition to make up for losing Derrick Henry. They also tried to fix the offensive line, a year after having the worst unit in the league, signing reliable Center Lloyd Cushenberry, and drafting the most pro ready and strongest left tackle in the draft, JC Latham. Defensively they also should be massively improved after trading for Chiefs star CB L’Jarius Sneed, and signing CB Chidobe Awuzie, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. I really hated their decision to fire head coach Mike Vrabel, but they did a great job of bringing in former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan as well as his father Bill Callahan, the most respected offensive line coach in the league. This offseason was very short sighted, which makes me not a big fan of their future outlook, but as far as a one season outlook goes, this aggressive offseason should really help them compete for a Wildcard spot, and most importantly find out if Will Levis can be a franchise QB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
I don’t understand the Jaguars' decisions during this offseason. They let Calvin Ridley walk after trading for him in 2022, waiting a year for him to come back from his season long gambling suspension, and then having him for just one season. The 79th pick in the 2024 draft for one somewhat underwhelming season is a steep price, and I’m not really a fan of how they replaced him. They signed former Bills deep threat Gabe Davis and drafted LSU’s deep threat Brian Thomas Jr with the 23rd overall pick. Questionable receiving options have plagued Trevor Lawrence throughout his career, and I don’t believe this season will be any different. Lawrence hasn’t been close to living up to his all-world potential, but it’s hard to expect him to with an offense built around TE Evan Engram and a rookie WR who wasn’t even a number 1 receiver in college, being behind Malik Nabers at LSU. I am not sure what their plan is going to be to make their offense better than last season (19th in offensive EPA per play last season). Their defense is in better shape at least, with talented players like star EDGE Josh Hines-Allen, former 1st overall pick Travon Walker, and a hopefully healthier and recently paid CB Tyson Campbell. They also have a new DC Ryan Neilsen who had the Falcons outperforming defensive expectations, so there is a chance he can help fix a consistently underwhelming defense. There is however still have a major question mark at LB. With Shanahan style offenses becoming increasingly common in the league, notably including in Houston, and those offenses’ propensity to attack the middle of the field and the linebacker position, that hole could hold them back from being a good defense. The Jags just feels like a team without any direction that could be looking for a new head coach and GM next season. Unless Trevor Lawrence carries this team with an MVP type of performance (which he is very capable of), the Jags aren't making the playoffs.
Comentaris