Kansas City Chiefs 13-4
I don’t think it matters what happens with the rest of the Chiefs roster as long as they have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Andy Reid. This team was able to win a Super Bowl last year with one of the worst wide receiver groups in recent memory. They’re now much improved at the position after bringing in the speedsters Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Both of them should open up the rest of the offense similar to how Tyreek Hill’s speed used to, even if neither has the potential to be as electric as he is. The only question marks in Kansas City are L’Jarius Sneed’s departure, and Rashee Rice’s off the field problems. Sneed was a major reason they could play man coverage as well as they did last season and was a major factor in slowing down the 49er’s deadly offense. Rice was the only non-Kelce skill position player that could be relied on by the end of the season, and now he is likely facing a multi-game suspension. After last season’s Super Bowl victory, though, I’m just not sure it really matters, as a Mahomes led team is going to be a Super Bowl contender no matter what.
Los Angeles Chargers 6-11
Jim Harbaugh’s first year in Los Angeles might get off to a rough start this year especially after losing so much offensive talent this offseason. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler have been the main skill position players for the Chargers for a long time now and losing them all in the same offseason is going to hurt. Their draft was a great first step in fixing the roster, landing both Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey in the first two rounds, but their roster is still in tough shape, specifically on defense. Keeping Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack is huge, especially when they can stay healthy, but at this stage of their careers those two aren’t enough to carry a defense to anything more than an average level. Justin Herbert will once again be tasked with carrying this team, and even if he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league (he is), they need more than just him to have a chance. There just isn't enough explosiveness outside of him to get excited about this offense, and that'll likely keep them from being close to the Chiefs this season.
Las Vegas Raiders 6-11
What are the Raiders doing? Brock Bowers is a great prospect, and Davante Adams is a future Hall of Fame receiver, but they have the worst QB room in the league passing to them. Placing their faith in Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew is a fool’s errand. No matter which one starts, they probably have the worst starting QB in the league, and you can’t win in this league without at least a solid QB. I am a huge fan of HC Antonio Pierce, but he’s going to have to work magic to make a roster without a QB close to a playoff team. Their defense should be improved after signing Christian Wilkins and pairing him with superstar edge rusher Maxx Crosby, but even their defense also feels like a couple stars with not much outside of them. They feel like a team in a Madden fantasy draft that didn’t have a high pick and was forced to punt on the QB position but was at least able to draft some of the best players in the league at positions most teams don't value as highly. The Raiders are really just setting themselves up nicely to drop a QB onto their team in 2025, so watch out for Dak Prescott in Vegas.
Denver Broncos 5-12
The Broncos might be in for a rough season in the first season of Russell Wilson’s dead cap hit, this year accounting for $53,000,000 against the cap. Their answer? Rookie first rounder Bo Nix. I have been very critical of that pick, but they could have done worse. In order for this to work they’ll need Nix to be much closer to the player he was at Oregon and far from the player he was at Auburn if the Broncos have any hope of competing. The good news is that Bo Nix is the most experienced college quarterback of all time, and because of that he should be in a position to start strong. At 24 years old already, he should already know how to be a pro, and hopefully has learned how to pick up a playbook quickly. The problem is that I just don’t think Nix has the talent to carry a mediocre offense to an average level. Their team is much worse than it was last year, but that is somewhat to be expected, considering that they’re eating the largest dead cap hit of all time and are paying Russ 53M to play on a different team. The Broncos are just lucky Patrick Surtain is one of the best corners in the league, because without him, this team might be the worst in the league.
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