Atlanta Falcons: 11-6
Everyone knows the story about the 2023 Atlanta Falcons. One of the most talented skill position groups whose coach (Arthur Smith) and QB (Desmond Ridder) held their offense back from elite or even an average level (surprisingly finishing as the 6th worst offense based on EPA/Play). Enter a new coach from the Sean McVay tree (Raheem Morris) and two new QBs (Kirk Cousins and rookie Michael Penix), and this offense could finally live up to their potential. Morris should run a similar gameplan to the 2017 Rams and feature electric 2nd year RB Bijan Robinson like the Rams featured Todd Gurley in their run to the Super Bowl. If they can feature Bijan as much as they did Gurley and get better QB play that allows them to actually feature both TE Kyle Pitts and WR Drake London, they’ll easily be a top ten offense. Each of these three playmakers have a chance to be a special top tier player at their position, but the question mark at QB might hold them back. Free agent addition Kirk Cousins is about to be 36 years old and is coming off a torn Achilles, one of the hardest injuries to come back from in sports. Although he doesn’t rely on his athleticism much, it’s still yet to be seen how much athleticism he has lost and if he can still get enough strength from his lower body to get back to his above average level of play. He’s been a full participant in training camp, which is a great sign but it’s still a question mark. If he isn’t healthy will a rookie Michael Penix be able to hold down the ship? Did they pick Penix eighth overall because they didn’t believe in Kirk’s recovery? There are too many unanswered questions about their QB room for me to be confident enough to pencil them in as a top 5 offense, even if they have the prerequisite talent. Their defense is also underwhelming, and I wish they would have used the eighth overall pick to help out their pass rush. Their defense does have some great pieces, primarily in the secondary with Jessie Bates III and AJ Terrell, but their defensive line hasn't been able to get pressure for almost a decade (their last double digit sack season was Vic Beasley in 2016 with 15.5 sacks). They traded for Arnold Ebiketie, and drafted Ruke Orhorhoro, but they’re still missing a difference making pass rusher that offenses have to gameplan around. The defense is at best a slightly above average unit, so they’ll need Kirk to fully recover from his torn Achilles and lead a talented offense to an elite level if they want to be legit NFC contenders. For now, they’re firmly NFC South favorites, but a tier below the 49ers, Eagles, and Lions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9
The Bucs are bringing back almost the same exact roster as last season, but losing their offensive coordinator, Dave Canales to the Panthers is going to be a huge loss. Starting QB Baker Mayfield might not be able to withstand that loss. Baker has had about as up and down a career as you could possibly have for an NFL quarterback. He was the 1st overall pick, led the Browns to their first playoff win in 25 years, then played poorly, was traded for a 5th round pick, lost a QB battle to Sam Darnold, almost fell out of the league, won a QB battle against Kyle Trask, led the Bucs to a playoff win, and now got paid starting QB money (3 year, 100M). Which Baker are they going to get now? Is he destined to come back to earth after losing the coordinator that maximized his talent? I don’t think Baker will play as poorly as he did late in his Browns career or in Carolina, but I do think his play is going to regress at least a little bit. They seem to have slightly improved the offensive line by drafting Graham Barton in the first round, which should help but the line is far from a great group. The WR room is still amazing with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but eventually father time will catch up to the soon to be 31-year-old Evans and 28-year-old injury prone Godwin. The defense is also worrisome, mainly because they traded starting CB Carlton Davis to the Lions and didn’t really replace him. Zyon McCollum is now set to be their starter and I just don’t believe he can hold up on the outside. When they re-signed Baker, Evans, and Antoine Winfield, they were bound to have to lose key pieces, but I just wish they would have prioritized cornerback more. With a new play caller, an inconsistent QB, and a potential hole at corner, I don’t see the Bucs repeating as NFC South champions.
New Orleans Saints: 5-12
This is a team that I believe is going to have a massive letdown season and one I am probably much lower on than most. The problem is their offensive line might be a trainwreck after RT Ryan Ramczyk was ruled out for the season, especially considering how much QB Derek Carr has struggled with pressure throughout his career. Trevor Penning is now being relied on to be their starter, but he has looked like a bust ever since being drafted in the first round, even being benched last season. At left tackle they have to play 1st round rookie Taliese Fuaga, who some in the draft community believed would be best suited at guard due to relatively short arms. Fuaga also played RT in college so having him switch to the blindside in his rookie year while possibly not having the ability to stay on the outside could be another disaster. It is one thing having to scheme around one bad offensive tackles, but with the possibility of two bad tackles, this could end very poorly for Carr. The interior of the offensive line is at least better and can rely on a good center in Erik McCoy, but even he has struggled to stay healthy recently. Luckily, the skill position players are very good. WR Chris Olave is a great young player and has a chance to establish himself as a truly special receiver and WR Rashid Shaheed has amazing home run ability. I just don’t believe Carr will have enough time to get the ball to them. Do Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams have enough juice left to keep their run game afloat? They could, but both are aging so that isn’t certain either. Talking about aging stars, their defense is also relying on 35-year-old Cam Jordan, 35-year-old Demario Davis, and 32-year-old Tyrann Matthieu. Father time is undefeated, and their defense already took a slight step back last season. Their defensive line was a major reason for this, as they couldn’t get pressure, finishing 29th in sacks last season. Chase Young was brought in during free agency, but he has struggled to stay healthy and shouldn’t be relied on against the run, so if they ask him to be more than a situational pass rusher, I will be concerned. They need Bryan Bresee, Isaiah Foskey, or Payton Turner to take a massive step in their development and start getting pressure on the quarterback, but I don’t think any are talented enough to make up for the potential falloff of their aging players. Their secondary is very good with Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, and Matthieu, but a secondary relies on the front to get pressure and I just don’t have hope that they will. With bad trench play on both sides of the ball this could be one of the surprise teams to finish with a top ten pick.
Carolina Panthers: 4-13
The win total for the Panthers this season is irrelevant. They aren’t going to be able to compete in the NFC after trading away Brian Burns, a top two player on their roster, and letting a few other key defensive free agents walk, but that isn’t what’s important. They need Bryce Young to look like at least a functional starter, and hopefully closer to a player that was worth being drafted with the 1st overall pick. Last season’s offense was about as bad as it can get. The offensive line played horribly, which didn’t allow Bryce any time in the pocket, and their receiver group led by 33-year-old Adam Thielen couldn’t get an inch of separation. It was a recipe to ruin a young QB and implement bad habits that could stick with him throughout his career. To their credit, the Panthers did everything they could this offseason to fix the offense, albeit while sacrificing any hope for the defense. They began by hiring Dave Canales as head coach, whose track record includes being the offensive coordinator who helped save Baker Mayfield’s career last season and the former QB coach who helped Geno Smith in Seattle have a late career resurgence. He is proven to be capable of fixing QBs, and theoretically should be the perfect guy to help remove some of the scar tissue Bryce built up last season. They also invested in the offensive line and the skill position group. They overpaid for two good guards in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, who should help raise the floor of the offensive line. They also brought in WR Diontae Johnson, a receiver who struggles with drops, but creates separation incredibly well. In the draft they picked WR Xavier Legette, who is very good with the ball in his hands, and RB Jonathan Brooks who before his ACL injury was viewed as a fringe 1st round player. Bryce is finally going to have solid weapons, a reliable offensive line, and a proven offensive coach. It’s up to him to prove that last year’s catastrophic offense hasn’t ruined him and that there’s hope for the future in Carolina. Even if the offense is functional, which is still a big if, their defense will keep them from winning games. Brian Burns was their main pass rusher and now that he’s gone, they’ll be relying on 31-year-old Jadeveon Clowney to make up for the production. DT Derrick Brown is still amazing and if Jaycee Horn can stay healthy, he should help, but they just don’t have the talent anymore to be a top 20 defense. They have a below average offense and defense, so winning a lot of games will be a tough task, but Panthers fans are just hoping for enough glimpses of hope from Bryce Young to be optimistic in 2025.
Photos by Dale Zanine (USA TODAY Sports), Julio Aguilar (Getty Images), Stephen Lew (USA TODAY Sports), and Rusty Jones (AP Photo)
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