Week one of the 2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Basketball games are in the books with Group Play finishing earlier today with Serbia’s 11-point win against South Sudan. The next group of games will be an elimination style eight-team bracket starting on August 6th. In this win or go home style playoff the pressure and intensity is really on Team USA now, as they’ll now have to win three straight games against much better teams in order to win Gold. In group play, as we discussed in the Olympic preview last week, the 12 teams were broken into three groups with 4 teams each playing three games against the other teams in their group. The top eight teams have now qualified for the March Madness style tournament with the top 2 teams from each group along with the two best 3 seeds advancing, based on records with the tiebreakers being head-to-head matchups and then overall point differentials. The only stipulation in the bracket is that in the first round of the tournament, teams from the same group don’t play each other, if possible, to help eliminate the chance of the best team being in the group of the second-best team, and that stopping them from obtaining at least a bronze medal. The bracket is now set though, so let’s get into the results of group play, the upcoming bracket, and my reactions to it all.
The Bracket
The United States, Germany, and Canada each finished 3-0, and are the top three seeds. The 4th, 5th, and 6th seeds are Serbia, France, and Australia, as the three second place teams in each group. Finally, Brazil and Greece are the 7th and 8th seeds, as both 1-2 teams finished with a better point differential than South Sudan. Japan, Puerto Rico, Spain, and South Sudan are now eliminated. The real fun can now begin with the Elimination Phase bracket. You know how it goes, win and you move on, lose and you’re out. Because of the stipulation not allowing teams to play others from their group in the Quarterfinals round, USA will not play Greece, and Canada will not play Australia in the first round like the seeding would suggest. Instead, Team USA will face Brazil and then face the winner of the Australia vs Serbia game, and Germany will be facing Greece, and the winner will face the winner of the highly anticipated Canada vs. France game. The Quarterfinals will all be played on August 6th, with games starting at 5:00 am EST, 8:30 am, 12:00 pm, and lastly Team USA playing at 3:30 pm. The next four games will be played on August 8th and August 10th, with Team USA likely playing in the 3:00 and 3:30 pm games (as long as they continue to advance).
Is France In Trouble?
The biggest surprise of Group Play was France’s overall struggles and Germany’s dominance, which was capped off by a blowout German win against France. I thought the French had the second-best Olympic roster, but they have not played close to that potential. They won against Brazil by 12, beat a winless Japan team by just 4, and of course lost to Germany by 14 yesterday. Germany’s stifling defense dominated them and never allowed France to set up their offense, while allowing both Franz Wagner and Dennis Shroder to drop 26 points on them. A team with a 4x DPOY in Rudy Gobert and a future DPOY in Victor Wembanyama is not supposed to have such a porous defense. We may have overrated the Frenchmen while underrating the German team. Rudy Gobert has once again struggled mightily when the lights are the brightest and wasn’t even in the second half starting lineup. When teams have mobile shooting bigs, Gobert just cannot be relied on. Without him being a factor, France is just a 20-year-old Wembanyama and shooters. When they face a real team, that isn’t going to be enough. The real team yesterday was Germany, led by Shroder who plays with great pace and is a very impressive driver and facilitator, and Wagner who is really living up to his sky-high potential this summer. Wagner and his brother Mo, along with Center Daniel Theis have the size, quickness, and shooting ability that can force big men like Gobert to get run off the court. It might have just been a good matchup for Germany, but I would have a hard time picking France in a potential Semifinal rematch. France’s rough play has also forced themselves into a murderer’s row of opponents. In the Quarterfinals they have to face Canada, which has Silver medal expectations themselves. Similar to Germany, Canada has the shooting to attack Gobert, but to make matters worse, they have a real superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and an incredibly deep supporting cast behind him. That cast has Jamal Murray, RJ Barrett, Lu Dort, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, and Dwight Powell. While it’ll be hard for Powell and Olynyk to guard Wembanyama, how are the French backcourt going to get past the ferocious defense of Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to get Wemby the ball? I picked the French team to win Silver in their home Olympics, but after group play it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see them advancing past the Canadians, or in a rematch against the Germans.
Team USA's Rotations
The other surprise through group play, which has dominated headlines and talking shows, has been Team USA’s rotations. Jayson Tatum did not play a single minute in their first game against Serbia, likely due to the surprising hot start for Kevin Durant (7-7 in the first half) in his first game back from a calf injury. Tatum was then thrust into the starting lineup against South Sudan, with Joel Embiid having the opposite situation, starting against Serbia, and not playing a minute against South Sudan, likely due to the fast-paced style of play South Sudan plays with. In their third game against Puerto Rico earlier today Jrue Holiday was out with an ankle injury, so he was the only player not to play, but the rotations were still unexpected. In this game they went with more of a platoon swap style having the starting lineup of Curry-Booker-Tatum-LeBron-Embiid being completely swapped for the White-Edwards-Durant-Davis-Adebayo backup unit throughout the game, excluding in the 4th when the game was out of reach. Head Coach Steve Kerr has proved very willing to experiment with their lineups and starters, and the question now becomes will that continue in their three elimination games as the pressure and competition rises? They face an inferior opponent, Brazil, in the Quarterfinals, and really shouldn’t have much trouble advancing against the likes of Bruno Caboclo, Raul Neto, Cristiano Felicio, and Gui Santos, so I’d expect experimental lineups to continue in the first round. Will he be as willing to experiment in the semifinals against Serbia or Australia, or will he have decided on what’s best by then? They just need to have the rotations ironed out by the gold medal game against Canada, France, Germany, or a Giannis led Greece team, as each of these teams, outside of Greece, are too talented to mess around with. The lineups have been unpredictable thus far and will continue to be a major storyline. With as much talent as Team USA has, they have been able to skate by their opponents, but in these last three games against potentially better teams, the way he pulls the strings could prove to be paramount to them in their quest to bring home another Gold medal for the United States of America.
Photos via Michael Conroy (Associated Press), and Jim Poorten (Getty Images)
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