Every division is now previewed and all teams’ records have been predicted. While the goal is to be as accurate as possible, the realities and unpredictability of the NFL make a perfect prediction practically impossible. That’s why I thought it’d be best to take a look before the season starts, so let’s take a look at the teams most likely to make me look stupid by either outperforming or underperforming my predictions. I’ll put all of my record predictions below to refresh your memory, and then give teams I probably should have been more optimistic or pessimistic about below that. If you want more in depth previews of each team along with the reasoning behind the original predictions I’ve added the links to the preview articles I wrote at the bottom of this article!
Record Predictions
NFC North
Detroit Lions: 12-5
Green Bay Packers: 11-6
Chicago Bears: 9-8
Minnesota Vikings: 7-10
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 14-3
Seattle Seahawks: 9-8
Los Angeles Rams: 7-10
Arizona Cardinals: 6-11
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5
Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
New York Giants: 5-12
Washington Commanders: 4-13
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 11-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-9
New Orleans Saints: 5-12
Carolina Panthers: 4-13
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
Cleveland Browns: 7-10
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
Los Angeles Chargers: 6-11
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
Denver Broncos: 5-12
AFC East
New York Jets: 10-7
Buffalo Bills: 9-8
Miami Dolphins: 9-8
New England Patriots: 5-12
AFC South
Houston Texans: 12-5
Indianapolis Colts: 10-7
Tennessee Titans: 8-9
Jaguars: 7-10
More Optimism
New York Giants: 5-12
The Giants are just two seasons removed from winning a playoff game. They were obviously a trainwreck last season, but most of the main players and coaches are still around from their 2022 season. They did lose two star players, Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney in free agency, which is a major reason I have them with one of the worst records in the league, but if they can get solid play from their replacements (Devin Singletary and Tyler Nubin) then who’s to say they can’t be closer to the 2022 Giants than the 2023 Giants. I may not be a huge believer in Daniel Jones but if he comes back from his ACL tear fully healthy and their line has better injury luck, they could end up as a passable offense. That’s all you really need with a defense as good as theirs. Bringing in Brian Burns will make life easier for Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. If their young secondary can play at a decent level, they could easily be a top ten defense and carry the team to a respectable .500 record. I don’t see their offense being good enough, but with a great offensive coach in Brian Daboll and a good defense, I might have been too low on them.
Los Angeles Rams: 7-10
Another team with one unit being miles ahead of the other, only this time the offense will be doing the heavy lifting. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, a beefy offensive line, and likely two good running backs in Kyren Williams and rookie Blake Corum could easily propel them to a top five offense in the league. Their offense isn’t why I had them finishing behind the Seahawks, though. I just don’t believe their defense will be able to stop anyone after the retirement of future hall of famer Aaron Donald. They won’t be able to rely on Aaron Donald to be double teamed on every snap which will put more pressure on every other defender. They’ve tried to replace him with youth and are now one of the youngest defenses in the league. I personally don’t think they’ll be able to come close to replacing him and will be in a shootout every game, but we’ve seen young defenders play well for Sean McVay before. If they can get even close to league average defense this year and the offense can stay healthy, the Rams would be a playoff lock and a very difficult wild card matchup. I just wasn’t ready to believe their defense would be okay after losing the best defensive player I’ve ever seen (I wasn’t alive to see Lawrence Taylor/ Reggie White/ Ronnie Lott/ Deion Sanders).
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
I really, really wanted to have the Raiders with a better record than this. They drafted a top 5 talent in Brock Bowers at 13 and signed the best available free agent in Christian Wilkins. I just have no faith in their QB room. I wish they would’ve done more than sign Gardner Minshew. Aidan O’Connell is probably going to start again, who to be fair helped the team win 5 of their last 9 games during his rookie season last year. I don’t think he or Minshew has the physical tools to be an above average QB though, which is why I have them finishing so low, but if he can limit his mistakes and keep Davante Adams engaged all season, they could shock some people again and come close to being a wild card team. I still think they’ll lose games because of the QB play which will set up a free agent QB (likely Dak Prescott) to come in and dominate, but if AOC plays at an average level this season, they could easily outperform my predictions.
More Pessimism
Chicago Bears: 9-8
It’s easy for me to want to automatically put the Bears in the hunt for a wildcard position but am I getting too far ahead of myself? Their head coach, Matt Eberflus, was on the hot seat and on his way to being fired before their midseason trade for Montez Sweat that helped the defense dominate late in the season. Their defense was definitely good with Montez Sweat, but being so reliant on one player for your entire pass rush isn’t a good idea. Their offense also wasn’t any good during their 5-3 finish to the season, only scoring above 30 points once. The optimism is rooted in rookie 1st overall pick Caleb Williams, a major improvement to the skill position group, and the hope for the defense to continue its end of season dominance. Caleb is one of the best playmaking QB prospects I can remember, but he struggled playing within structure at times behind a terrible USC line, and the Bears line isn’t great either. On top of that, rookies almost always take time before playing well. They also fired their offensive coordinator and brought in former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron, who was underwhelming in Seattle to say the least. What happens if Caleb runs into the same problems Fields ran into with a dysfunctional offense and a bad offensive line? It’s hard to have much faith in this offensive coaching staff to develop Caleb, and we’ve seen how much coaching matters to young QBs. We probably shouldn’t be giving the Bears as much benefit of the doubt as they’ve been getting. I still am going to pick them as a Wildcard team though, because I believe Caleb is just too transcendent of a talent that they can’t ruin him.
New York Jets: 10-7
The team I’m least confident in my prediction is the Jets. I have them winning the AFC East, and they definitely have the talent to do it, but they’re still the Jets. No matter what the expectations are for the Jets it just seems to never work out for them. Their QB tore his Achilles on his fourth play last season. They honestly might just be cursed. Maybe the curse is from a Joe Namath underwear commercial or from a Mark Sanchez hot dog, but it just doesn’t ever seem to go right for them. To make matters worse, they are also relying on boom/bust players at almost every key position on offense. Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off the Achilles tear, and there were already questions of if he could still play before he got to New York. They signed Tyron Smith to play left tackle who is coming off his first season playing in 13 or more games since 2019. Their wide receiver addition, Mike Williams, is coming off a torn ACL and has always struggled to stay healthy. Even their coach is a question mark, as Robert Saleh has yet to prove he can coach an average offensive unit, even if he is still one of the top defensive coaches. I might be crazy to have picked them to win the division, but I just think they have the best defense in the league and if things go right for each of their wildcard players, they will be legit Super Bowl contenders. Relying on some of the most unreliable people in the sport might come back to haunt me.
Links to Division Previews
NFC West
NFC East
AFC West
AFC East
Photos via Seth Wenig (AP Photo), Getty Images, Mark J. Terrill (AP Photo), and Ashlee Razin (Sun-Times)
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