Every year we have at least one team make a surprise trade up in the draft. Last year the Houston Texans were expected to pick either CJ Stroud or Will Anderson Jr. with the 2nd overall pick. Instead they took both, locking in Stroud at 2, and then trading back up to the 3rd overall pick to draft the future DROY, Anderson Jr. This year some teams have made it clear that they are looking to make a move, specifically the Vikings, after they traded up for the 23rd overall pick (and the 232nd pick), trading the 42nd and 188th picks and a future 2nd to the Texans. The Vikings now have the 11th and 23rd pick and after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, they are effectively telling every team that they want to move up again to draft their quarterback of the future. It’s not just the Vikings that could be willing to make a draft day deal, though, so let’s look at each team that could, or at least should, make a move on draft night.
Trading Up
Minnesota Vikings
After gaining the 23rd overall pick, it is likely that Minnesota will package this with their 11th overall pick to leapfrog another QB needy team, most likely the Giants. The top three picks by Chicago, Washington and New England will almost certainly be QB's Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels, in some order, so the question starts with QB4. Michigan's JJ McCarthy has started to establish himself as the fourth best QB in this class, although some might have Washington's Michael Penix Jr. at that spot. Penix has serious medical concerns, so if the Vikings are not comfortable with selecting Penix then they will have to move up in order to guarantee they get McCarthy. The Giants seem to be in the QB market this year, so moving ahead of their 6th overall pick might be necessary. Luckily the Cardinals and the Chargers at 4 and 5 could both be open to business. The Vikings should be desperate to move up for a QB, so they are not forced to place their hopes in Sam Darnold this season.
Denver Broncos
Has Sean Payton ever been the patient risk averse coach? No, he hasn’t. He decided to pay Russell Wilson $85M to not play for the Broncos. Payton is one of the most aggressive HC's ever, so while there is a chance they go into 2024 with a lame duck QB, and then attempt to sign a player like Dak Prescott next offseason, I doubt he’ll be able to stay patient enough to live through another failed season due to poor QB play. If Payton does decide to target a QB in the draft, then expect him to be aggressive and enter a bidding war with the Vikings for pick 4 or 5. If he views McCarthy as a franchise QB I doubt he’ll be outbid.
Las Vegas Raiders
In Antonio Pierce's first offseason as head coach of the Raiders, he should not let the division rival Broncos and Sean Payton find his franchise QB. That alone could make Vegas a threat to move up, but their QB situation also leaves much to be desired. The Raiders projected starter is 2nd year QB Aidan O'Connell, who led them to a 5-5 record in his 10 games as a starter, but offers very little upside. They also signed Gardner Minshew to a 2 year, $25M deal, which does seem to point towards them competing for the starting position. In a division that has them face Patrick Mahomes II and Justin Herbert both twice a season, I doubt they are happy settling for mediocrity at QB. If Denver and Minnesota don't trade up, then Vegas could just move up a few spots to 8, 9, or 10, in order to leapfrog both teams, and find their franchise guy.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are always a candidate to trade up for a player they love. They have 10 picks in this year's draft and for the first year since 2021, they have a first round pick. If they identify a player they want, Lynch wont hesitate to pull the trigger, as we've seen with players like Rueben Foster, Trey Lance, and Brandon Aiyuk. The 49ers roster is probably the best in the league and coming off a Super Bowl loss, they might just need one or two more difference makers to win it all. Their biggest needs are Offensive Line and Cornerback, so if there is a run on either position in the teens or early 20's, expect the 49ers to try to make a move to secure one earlier than 31.
Trading Down
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona traded down last season, and don't be surprised if they do so again this year. As we've discussed, many teams need a QB and the Cardinals are in prime position to trade down. The Cardinals are a well-coached and improving team, but their defense and skill position players need a ton of help. While selecting OSU WR Marvin Harrison Jr would be a great fit, this WR class is one of the best and deepest we have ever seen. If they trade back to 11, 12, or 13, they could still get a great player like LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr, while also targeting other needs like RT with the picks they got back. Gaining draft capital needs to be a high priority, as this team is not set up to win this year.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert makes this team seem so much closer to contention than they actually are. They have major needs at OC, RT, RB, WR, IDL, LB, and CB. Their starting WR is currently Joshua Palmer after trading Keenan Allen and losing Mike Williams in free agency. They lost Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett in free agency too, making this look like one of the worst skill position groups in the league. Their offensive line has some key pieces like Rashawn Slater and Zion Johnson, but the rest is lacking. Their defense has big name players like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr, but all have struggled mightily to play at a high level or stay on the field. With the 5th overall pick the debate has been whether they should go with OT or WR, but their team has so many holes that I believe they need to trade down, allowing them to get a tackle and a wide receiver, and possibly fill other holes in their roster as well.
Chicago Bears
No, the Bears won't trade down from the first overall pick. They are almost guaranteed to pick Caleb Williams. Their 9th overall pick, however, is a different story. Their roster is actually in a really good position so they can probably afford to help a team leapfrog the Vikings at 11. The Bears biggest need is probably at Edge Rusher and finding someone to pair with Montez Sweat, but if the Falcons take the best edge rusher available at 8, presumably Dallas Turner, then they might view the next 2 edge rushers, Laitu Latu and Jared Verse on the board similarly, and might not mind trading down. They gave up their 2nd round pick in the deadline deal for Sweat, and didn't get as much compensation for Justin Fields as many believed, so picking up the extra draft capital should be a priority.
New York Jets
Similar to the Bears reasoning, except they need offensive line help, rather than edge. They did sign 34 year old Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith, but he has dealt with many injuries in recent years, including missing 23 games in the past three seasons. It would be hard to bet on just him to protect 40 year old Aaron Rodgers' blindside. If the Titans take Joe Alt, it’s likely the next three tackles, Taliese Fuaga, Olu Fashanu, and Amarius Mims are all seen in a similar light for the Jets. Picking up a second round pick, which they don't have thanks to the Rodgers trade, would be more important than taking their pick of the litter.
Kansas City Chiefs
Getting the 5th year option is huge for teams, which makes the end of the 1st round always a prime spot for a trade up. Only first round picks get a 5th year option, so for every pick after the 1st round, the negotiations for a second contract start a year earlier. When picking a QB, this is huge, as it gives teams the option to lock them into average money and not the $40M-$50M deals players like Daniel Jones have been getting. A team that misses on the top tier QBs but loves one of the remaining QBs, whether that be Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix, or even Spencer Rattler, would want that fifth year option, and try to move into the last pick of the 1st round. It is also possible a team wants to move above the Panthers pick at 33, to get a WR, as it is no secret that the Panthers need one badly. The Chiefs have major needs at both WR and CB, so a trade down from 32 and into the 2nd round would make a lot of sense, especially if they can find a desperate trade partner.
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