The San Francisco 49ers have found yet another way to suffer a gut wrenching postseason loss. Their 2023 season ended by losing Super Bowl 58 in overtime on a game winning touchdown pass thrown by the greatest player of this generation, Patrick Mahomes II. 49ers players and fans have become too familiar with this feeling of losing this close to winning their sixth Super Bowl. These last five years of 49ers football has included two Super Bowl losses, and two NFC championship losses. This year’s loss was made all the more excruciating when the news came out confirming Pro Bowl LB Dre Greenlaw has, in fact, tore his Achilles. The pain of this loss can lead to 49ers fans having feelings of hopelessness, but there are many ways they can continue to improve during this off-season.
The 49ers just got closer than they ever have to their ultimate goal. This team has the best offense in the league, including; second year QB Brock Purdy, who finished as a finalist for the Most Valuable Player award, RB Christian McCaffrey, the Offensive Player of the Year, and probably the best roster in the league. Brock Purdy is going into his first full offseason and should show even more improvement going into his third season. Aging offensive players like OT Trent Williams, and FB Kyle Juszczyk have also confirmed that they are not retiring. This offense has shown it has what it takes to compete with the best in the league, but their defense is where improvement is required. Although it is also one of the most talented units in the NFL, the defense has struggled to find an identity, especially when the lights got brightest during the postseason. Their defense gave up 136, 182, and 130 rushing yards against the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs, respectively. In those playoff games, the opposition scored 21, 31, and 25 points, respectively. The defense constantly felt like they did not have an answer to good run games, and forced the offense to mass fourth quarter comebacks in each of the NFC Playoff games. They are filled with superstar players Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Mooney Ward, but need to find a way to improve this side of the ball if they want to finally be the team holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end.
Bringing the Defense Back to its Glory
The 49ers defense is in need of major improvement, and the 49ers decision makers agree, having already begun making changes to this side of the football by “mutually parting ways’ with Defensive Coordinator (DC) Steve Wilks. This decision has felt somewhat inevitable throughout a season of underwhelming defensive performances that necessitated offensive comeback victories. This defense had massive expectations coming into the season, having finished the previous 2022 season as the best defense in the league, ranking first in Defensive DVOA. DVOA is a measure of "a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average”(Schatz) and is a common metric to measure overall offensive or defensive efficiency. During this season, however, they finished as just the fourth best defense in Defensive DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This is a team that gained pro bowl DT Javon Hargrave in free agency, and only lost four presumably low level starters in free agency. Before the season many experts expected them to improve, not decline. The main difference one can point to between this defense and the defense of years past, is the person calling the shots. Going from having DeMeco Ryans, current Texans HC, as their DC, to Steve Wilks proved to be a major detriment.
Who Will Run the Defense Next?
The 49ers need to knock this DC hire out of the park. Steve Wilks was a good coach, but the 49ers need a great coach in order to get this team over the hump. While there are many rumored coaches who could interest the 49ers, including big name hires such as; Bill Belichick, Mike Vrabel, or Brandon Staley, there are also a few in-house hires the 49ers should look into. These candidates include, but are not limited to, DL Coach Kris Kocurek, LB Coach Johnny Holland, and Safeties Coach Daniel Bullocks. After hiring Steve Wilks from outside the organization, I would not be surprised to see the 49ers valuing an in-house hire like Kris Kocurek, who knows the players and scheme inside and out.
How Can They Improve?
The 49ers need to find a way to use this loss as the stepping stone into a new, more balanced version of their team. While the offense was not perfect, they were consistently asked to carry a struggling defense, which proved to be too tall of a task in the Super Bowl. The defense can ask less of this offense, by first hiring the right defensive coordinator, one that can find a way to improve their run defense. I believe they should seriously consider Kris Kocurek as the next DC. Hopefully together, they can find a way to stop Patrick Mahomes II if there was another Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and the 49ers.
References
Avila, Carlos. San Francisco Chronicle, 12 Feb. 2024, www.pressdemocrat.com/article/sports/the-49ers-head-for-an-offseason-wondering-what-if-following-frustrating/?artslide=1.
FTN Fantasy. “Total Team DVOA - NFL Football Stats.” Www.Ftnfantasy.Com, 12 Feb. 2024, www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa.
Holloway, Patrick. “Allbright: Internally Kris Kocurek Is Seen as Responsible for the 49ers Defensive Emergence.” NinersNation.Com, 4 Nov. 2019, www.chatsports.com/san-francisco-49ers/a/source/allbright-internally-kris-kocurek-is-seen-as-responsible-for-the-49ers-defensive-emergence-15645095.
Schatz, Aaron. “What Is Dvoa? Advanced NFL Stats Explainer.” Www.Ftnfantasy.Com, 28 Aug. 2023, www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/103241/dvoa-explainer.
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