The NFC South is still up for grabs late in the season for the third straight year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a legitimate shot to win a fourth straight title.
The Buccaneers have taken advantage of a weak division the past two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Though Tampa Bay has won four straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one game back. On Tuesday, Atlanta made a big move by benching quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have a slim chance of winning the division — even with a losing record — and the Carolina Panthers can still play spoiler with two division rivals on their closing schedule.
Here’s a look at how the division race can play out in the final weeks of the 2024 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Chance to win division: 79.4%
Chance to make the playoffs: 81.6%
Final games: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
Remaining schedule of strength rank: 27
Path to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been in sole possession of first place in the division and control their destiny. They need to keep winning to maintain a one-game lead over the Falcons because of Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker. Their Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers was their toughest remaining opponent, and they smoked them 40-17 for their fourth straight victory.
Biggest hurdles: Consistency has eluded them on defense, but they’ve found a winning formula despite mounting injuries. Though none of their remaining three opponents have winning records, the Panthers did take them to overtime in Week 13. They’ve also had issues with turnovers. Tampa Bay’s 20 lost turnovers are seventh most in the league. — Jenna Laine
Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Chance to win division: 20.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 29.0%
Final games: vs. New York Giants, at Washington Commanders, vs. Panthers
Remaining schedule of strength rank: Tied for 31
Path to the playoffs: The Falcons are a game behind the Bucs but swept the season series. So, if those two teams have the same record atop the NFC South, Atlanta would win the division via tiebreaker as long as the Falcons aren’t tied with the Saints. The Falcons need to go 3-0 or 2-1 the rest of the way and hope the Bucs lose once or twice. Atlanta puts itself in a better position to do this by moving on from a struggling Cousins to Penix. A wild-card spot is possible, but four non-division-leading teams have better records.
Biggest hurdles: Winning their two home games remaining against the Giants and Panthers, who have a combined five wins, is an absolute must. The road game against the Commanders (9-5) — who are also fighting for a wild-card spot — is a bit more precarious, but not completely impossible. Winning out and going 10-7 would be a successful season for the Falcons. — Marc Raimondi
New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Chance to win division: 0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 0%
Final games: at Green Bay Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers
Remaining schedule of strength rank: 12
Path to the playoffs: The Saints really needed the Raiders to pull off an upset against the Falcons because now they would need both the Falcons and Buccaneers to lose and for them to win out to win the NFC South — their only path to the playoffs at this point. That’s pretty unlikely considering how well the Buccaneers are playing. Even if it’s close in the last week, the Saints’ loss to the Panthers probably comes back to haunt them.
Biggest hurdles: The Saints don’t control their destiny. But even if that wasn’t a factor, New Orleans is going to be at a significant disadvantage. The team’s next game is in the elements at Green Bay, without starting quarterback Derek Carr and potentially without starting running Alvin Kamara, who has a groin injury. Though rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler played well for a half last week, that’s still a tough task for a young backup. — Katherine Terrell
Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Chance to win division: 0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 0%
Final games: vs. Arizona Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons
Remaining schedule of strength rank: 13
How they can play spoiler against other NFC South teams: By doing what they did recently in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, Bucs and Philadelphia Eagles — play well enough to win but get over the hump for the victory. There’s no plan to tank for a shot at the No. 1 draft pick. It’s all about establishing a winning culture for 2025. The Bucs got a taste of that in Week 13 when an overtime fumble was the difference in the Bucs’ win. They also got a taste of how dangerous Bryce Young (298 yards, two total touchdowns) can be.
What’s left to accomplish: Solidify whether Young can be the franchise quarterback, if he hasn’t done that already, so the front office can focus on upgrading the defense during the offseason. The defense’s inability to stop the run has defined the team’s seventh straight losing season. Games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta are perfect examples. The Bucs had 238 yards rushing in their overtime win in Charlotte, and the Falcons had a season-high 198 yards in Week 6. — David Newton
